Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting 20 or more tweets during the specified period.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, participants expect Elon Musk to exceed 19 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026. The Pulse AI also aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of fewer tweets, suggesting a consensus on his active social media presence during this timeframe.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates a strong NO at 97.95%.
• 3 Current sentiment suggests Musk is likely to remain active on Twitter.
• 4 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 5 With 245 hours to expiry, there is time for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.