Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Musk will not post 100-119 tweets in the specified period.

With a market probability of 99.65% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not tweet within the specified range. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of reaching the tweet count in question.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a well-established expectation of Musk's tweeting habits.
• 3 Historical data on Musk's tweet frequency supports the low probability of reaching the specified count.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, with little fluctuation in betting patterns.
• 5 The time to expiry is relatively short, allowing for quick adjustments to market sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.