Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 115 tweets from Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 115 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026, with a NO probability of 79.5%. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a slightly higher likelihood for YES at 24%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards fewer tweets from Musk.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests some uncertainty.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 70 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.