Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 115 tweets from Elon Musk between March 14-16, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will post fewer than 115 tweets during the specified period, with a NO probability of 84.5%. The AI model also supports this view, suggesting a slightly higher chance for YES at 19%, but overall sentiment leans towards fewer tweets being posted.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome significantly.
• 2 AI model shows a slightly higher probability for YES but still leans towards NO.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 43 hours, which may lead to rapid shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.