Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in April 2026?

Low likelihood of Musk posting 120-139 tweets in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 120-139 tweets in April 2026, with a probability of only 0.15% for this outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a higher but still low probability of 3.65%. Given the current market dynamics, the pricing appears fair, reflecting a moderate level of confidence.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 3.65%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates fair market pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1209 hours.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.