Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026?

Market favors fewer than 1200 tweets from Musk in March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026, with a 96.45% probability for 'NO'. The AI model's slightly higher probability for 'YES' suggests some uncertainty, but overall confidence in the market is moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors fewer tweets.
• 2 The difference between market and AI probabilities indicates some uncertainty.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to the predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.