Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026?

Low probability for Musk posting 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, with only 5.80% probability for YES. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus that Musk is unlikely to tweet within the specified range during that month.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO significantly at 94.2%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of YES.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 514 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment or events.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.