Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

The market indicates a strong belief that Musk will post fewer than 140 tweets during this period.

With a market probability of 0.00% for YES and 100% for NO, participants overwhelmingly expect Elon Musk to post fewer than 140 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a high level of confidence in the NO outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors fewer than 140 tweets.
• 2 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 1.
• 3 High confidence level of 95/100 suggests strong consensus among participants.
• 4 Pulse AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment.
• 5 No time pressure indicated, as expiry details are unknown.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.