Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in March 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 140-159 tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 140-159 tweets in March 2026, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, indicating a low likelihood of the event occurring. Given the high confidence level and time to expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is very low at 2%, indicating minimal expectation of high tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may support the current NO sentiment.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, with no significant fluctuations in betting activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 554 hours remaining until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.