Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 140-159 tweets in March 2026.
The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 140-159 tweets in March 2026, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this view, indicating a low likelihood of the event occurring. Given the high confidence level and time to expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.