Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Low probability of Musk tweeting 140-164 times from March 12-14, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 140 and 164 tweets during the specified dates, with a NO probability of 92.65%. The AI model also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 10.85%, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecast.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market appears to be fairly priced with a low edge of 3.5.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 71 hours, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower frequency than the specified range.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.