Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 140-164 tweets from March 14-16, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, with a probability of 95.55%. This suggests that participants believe it is unlikely for Musk to tweet within the specified range during the given dates. The AI model also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for YES, indicating some divergence in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current odds.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 43 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.