Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 140-164 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards a NO outcome, with a probability of 97.65%. In contrast, the AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of YES at 5.85%, indicating a divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors NO at 97.65%.
• 2 AI model predicts a slightly higher YES probability at 5.85%.
• 3 Current edge of 3.5 suggests market pricing is reasonable.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 67 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.