Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 140-164 tweets from March 7-9, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the NO outcome, with a probability of 95.7%. This suggests that participants believe it is unlikely for Elon Musk to tweet within the specified range during the given dates. The market appears to be fairly priced, indicating a balanced sentiment among traders.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is relatively small.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 15 hours, which may affect trading activity.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower tweet volumes during this timeframe.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 7 12:00 PM ET to March 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.