Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Market favors fewer than 140 tweets from Elon Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will post fewer than 140 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026, with a probability of 90.65% for the NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for YES, suggesting some divergence in expectations.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors the NO outcome at 90.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for YES at 12.85%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 27 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 9 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.