Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

Market leans towards Elon Musk posting fewer than 1400 tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a slight preference for the NO outcome, with a probability of 52.55%. Both market and AI probabilities indicate a consensus that Musk is unlikely to exceed 1400 tweets in the specified timeframe, suggesting a balanced view on his social media activity. The edge of -3 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors fewer than 1400 tweets.
• 2 The probabilities from market and AI are closely aligned.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 515 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.