Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in March 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 160-179 times in March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Elon Musk will not post 160-179 tweets in March 2026, with a low AI probability of 2% for YES. This suggests a strong consensus among participants that Musk's tweeting activity will remain below this threshold during the specified month.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Musk tweeting 160-179 times.
• 2 The market appears to be fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 3 Confidence level in the NO prediction is high at 90/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 554 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower frequency than the specified range.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.