Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 165-189 times from March 12-14, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post 165-189 tweets during the specified period, with a 98.35% probability for 'NO.' The AI model also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 5.15%, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecasts.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Musk tweeting frequently.
• 2 AI model indicates a slightly higher likelihood of more tweets than the market.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about Musk's tweeting habits during this timeframe.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 5 With 69 hours to expiry, market dynamics may shift with new developments.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.