Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?

Low probability of Musk tweeting 165-189 times from March 19-21, 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that Elon Musk will not post between 165 and 189 tweets during the specified period, with a NO probability of 98.6%. The AI model also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 4.9%. The edge suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower frequency during this timeframe.
• 3 Market pricing indicates a balanced view with a slight edge towards NO.
• 4 The confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time pressure of 66 hours may influence last-minute sentiment shifts.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 19 12:00 PM ET to March 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.