Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 165-189 tweets from March 21-23, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Elon Musk posting between 165-189 tweets during the specified period, with a 96.55% probability for 'NO'. The AI probability also aligns closely with the market, suggesting a general agreement on this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests stability in expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk indicate lower tweet volumes in similar time frames.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient to reflect genuine sentiment.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 76 hours until expiry, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 21 12:00 PM ET to March 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.