Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 165-189 times from March 26 to 28, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 165-189 tweets during the specified period, with a probability of only 1.05% for 'YES.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of such high tweet volume based on current trends and historical behavior.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 98.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.55%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 51 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 26 12:00 PM ET to March 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.