Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 165-189 tweets during the specified period, with a 99.25% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching the tweet count in question.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.25%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low chance of reaching the tweet count at 4.25%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 67 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current data.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 30 12:00 PM ET to April 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.