Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 180-199 times in the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026, with a NO probability of 98.15%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability, suggesting that while there is some uncertainty, the overall sentiment leans heavily towards fewer tweets.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of 180-199 tweets.
• 2 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 219 hours, adding urgency to the predictions.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower tweet frequency during similar time frames.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.