Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

The market overwhelmingly predicts Elon Musk will not post 180-199 tweets in the specified period.

With a market probability of 0% for YES and 100% for NO, there is a strong consensus against the likelihood of Musk posting the specified number of tweets. The Pulse AI probability further supports this view, indicating a minimal chance of YES at 1%. The high confidence level of 95 suggests a robust belief in this outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors NO, indicating low expectations for tweet volume.
• 2 Key factors include Musk's historical tweeting patterns and recent activity levels.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced, with minimal edge indicated.
• 4 High confidence level suggests strong agreement among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 17 12:00 PM ET to March 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.