Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Low probability of Elon Musk posting 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 180-199 tweets during the specified period, with a NO probability of 98.05%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 3.95%. Given the edge of 2, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests consensus on the outcome.
• 3 Elon Musk's tweeting patterns may influence future probabilities.
• 4 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts in Musk's activity.
• 5 Market confidence is moderate, indicating some uncertainty in predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.