Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in April 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk tweeting 180-199 times in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of Elon Musk posting 180-199 tweets in April 2026, with a NO probability of 99.85%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability, suggesting a consensus that such a high volume of tweets is unlikely within the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically tweets less than 200 times monthly.
• 3 Market probabilities indicate a strong consensus on the expected tweet volume.
• 4 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 5 With 1209 hours until expiry, sentiment could shift with new developments.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.