Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not tweet 190-214 times from March 16-18, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 190-214 tweets during the specified dates, with a 98.9% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of this outcome, suggesting that current expectations are aligned with historical tweeting patterns.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 98.9%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market expectations.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns suggest lower tweet frequency.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 5 Confidence level at 60/100 indicates moderate certainty.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 16 12:00 PM ET to March 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.