Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 190-214 tweets from March 19-21, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the 'NO' outcome, with a probability of 99.4%. This suggests that participants believe it is highly unlikely for Musk to tweet within the specified range during the given dates. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for the 'YES' outcome at 4.1%, indicating a consensus on the expected tweeting behavior.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of 99.4% indicates strong confidence in the prediction.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future behavior.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with a fair pricing edge of 3.5.
• 5 Time pressure of 66 hours may lead to fluctuations as the expiry approaches.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 19 12:00 PM ET to March 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.