Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Market strongly favors fewer than 190-214 tweets from Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.05% for NO, indicating a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post between 190 and 214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 4.45%. This divergence suggests some uncertainty, but overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 High confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 3 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 4 Historical tweeting patterns may influence future behavior.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with only 76 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 21 12:00 PM ET to March 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.