Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026?

The market strongly favors that Musk will not post tweets from 1920-1999 in April 2026.

With a market probability of 99% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against the likelihood of Elon Musk posting tweets from 1920-1999 in April 2026. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low expectation for such tweets, though it suggests a slightly higher chance than the market. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.5%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with expectations.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 1212 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.