Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Low probability of Musk tweeting 20-39 times during the specified week.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026, with a probability of only 0.05% for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of 20-39 tweets.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than the AI's estimate of 2.05%.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is 246 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.