Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Low probability of Musk tweeting 20-39 times in the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 20-39 tweets between March 13 and March 20, 2026, with a 99.95% probability for 'NO.' The AI model also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES,' suggesting that while the market is firmly against the outcome, there is a minor chance perceived by the AI.

• 1 Market consensus heavily favors the 'NO' outcome with 99.95%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a minor chance of 2.05% for 'YES.'
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 231 hours, adding urgency to the market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 13 12:00 PM ET to March 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.