Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting fewer than 20 tweets during the specified period.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO and a Pulse AI probability of 97.95% for the same outcome, there is a consensus that Musk will not tweet 20-39 times from March 27 to April 3, 2026. The edge indicates that the market is fairly priced, suggesting limited room for significant shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a low tweet count from Musk.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically tweets less frequently during similar timeframes.
• 3 The high confidence level indicates strong belief in the NO outcome.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, with minimal fluctuations in probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with 227 hours remaining until the expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.