Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Elon Musk will not post 20-39 tweets during the specified period.

With a market probability of 0% for YES and 100% for NO, there is a clear consensus that Musk will not tweet within the given range. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a very low likelihood of the YES outcome, suggesting strong confidence in the NO position.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the likelihood of 20-39 tweets.
• 2 The probability of YES is extremely low at 1%, reinforcing the NO stance.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1, indicating balanced expectations.
• 4 High confidence level of 95/100 suggests strong conviction in the NO outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect future market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 3 12:00 PM ET to March 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.