Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in April 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 20-39 times in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 20-39 tweets in April 2026, with a 99.85% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES'. This suggests that while the market is fairly priced, there remains a small chance of increased activity from Musk.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity in future months.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge indicates that the market is fairly priced with minimal discrepancies.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.