Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in March 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not tweet 200-219 times in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk tweeting between 200-219 times in March 2026, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of the event occurring, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 90 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the event occurring.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower frequency than the predicted range.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, limiting potential for sudden changes.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates that the market's pricing aligns closely with AI predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.