Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in April 2026?

Low probability of Elon Musk posting 2000+ tweets in April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting over 2000 tweets in April 2026, with a 97.85% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher confidence in the possibility of a 'YES'.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of 2.15% for 'YES' suggests minimal expectation for high tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future behavior.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.