Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not post 215-239 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting between 215-239 tweets during the specified dates, with a 99.75% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.75%, indicating some uncertainty but overall alignment with the market sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' with 99.75% probability.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance for 'YES' at 3.75%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 5 Time to expiry is 101 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.