Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Low probability of Elon Musk tweeting 215-239 times from March 16 to March 18, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 215-239 tweets during the specified dates, with a market probability of 98.95% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.55%, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 98.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight divergence with a 4.55% chance for 'YES'.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about high tweet volume during this period.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 76 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 16 12:00 PM ET to March 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.