Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?

Low probability of Musk posting 215-239 tweets from March 19 to 21, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting between 215-239 tweets during the specified period, with a 99.8% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment leans heavily towards fewer tweets than the specified range.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a low tweet count from Musk.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns suggest Musk typically posts fewer than 215 tweets in short time frames.
• 3 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting confidence in the current probabilities.
• 4 Time pressure is limited with only 67 hours until expiry.
• 5 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 19 12:00 PM ET to March 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.