Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Market strongly favors fewer than 215 tweets from Musk during the specified dates.

The prediction market shows a high probability of 99.65% for NO, indicating a strong consensus that Elon Musk will not post between 215-239 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 3.85%, suggesting some uncertainty. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors fewer tweets from Musk.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns may influence expectations for future behavior.
• 3 Liquidity in the market is relatively stable, indicating consistent participant interest.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 77 hours until expiry, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with AI predictions.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 21 12:00 PM ET to March 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.