Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Low probability of Musk posting 215-239 tweets from March 23 to 25, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Elon Musk posting between 215 and 239 tweets during the specified period, with a market probability of 99.75% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a significantly lower chance of 'YES' at 3.75%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower tweet counts.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with a clear consensus.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 83 hours until expiry.
• 5 Confidence level indicates some uncertainty in the prediction.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 23 12:00 PM ET to March 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.