Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not tweet 215-239 times during the specified dates.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk tweeting 215-239 times from March 26 to March 28, 2026, with a 99.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching the specified tweet count.

• 1 Current market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 99.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.85%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in the market's prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 53 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 26 12:00 PM ET to March 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.