Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 215-239 times in the specified period.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 215-239 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026, with a 99.8% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of reaching the specified tweet count, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a moderate confidence level.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.8%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 3.7%.
• 3 Market edge of 3.5 indicates fair pricing based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 54 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.