Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Low probability for Musk posting 215-239 tweets from March 9-11, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting between 215-239 tweets during the specified period, with a market probability of 99.85% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.15%, suggesting a minor divergence in expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower tweet volumes during similar timeframes.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 9 12:00 PM ET to March 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.