Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to tweet 220-239 times in the specified week.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the 'NO' outcome, indicating that participants believe Elon Musk will tweet fewer than 220 times during the specified period. With a market probability of 95.5% for 'NO' and a confidence level of 75/100, the consensus is that the expected tweet volume will not reach the projected range.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors the 'NO' outcome at 95.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI also supports the 'NO' outcome with a 93.5% probability.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 243 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.