Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Low probability for Musk to post 240-259 tweets in the specified timeframe.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Elon Musk will not post between 240 and 259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026, with a market probability of 92.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES'.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 243 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may influence future expectations.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 24 12:00 PM ET to March 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.