Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO for Musk posting 240+ tweets from March 12-14, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of NO at 99.75%, suggesting that participants do not expect Elon Musk to exceed 240 tweets during the specified period. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 96.25% probability for NO, indicating a consensus against the likelihood of such high tweet activity. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest lower activity in short time frames.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The time to expiry is short, with only 70 hours remaining.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting a well-informed participant base.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 12 12:00 PM ET to March 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.