Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Low probability of Musk posting 240+ tweets in the given timeframe.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 240 or more tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026, with a 99.7% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.7%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 3.8%.
• 3 Market edge of 3.5 indicates fair pricing based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 50 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 14 12:00 PM ET to March 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.