Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Market strongly favors NO on Musk posting 240+ tweets in March 2026.

The prediction market shows a significant probability of 99.45% for NO, indicating skepticism about Elon Musk's tweeting frequency during the specified dates. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a consensus against the likelihood of reaching 240 tweets. The edge of 3.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO, reflecting low expectations for tweet volume.
• 2 The high NO probability suggests confidence in Musk's tweeting habits being less prolific.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may inform current predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, supporting the reliability of current prices.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with only 76 hours until the market's expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 16 12:00 PM ET to March 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.