Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will not tweet 240+ times from March 21 to 23, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elon Musk posting 240 or more tweets during the specified dates, with a 99.75% probability for 'NO'. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 96.25% for the same outcome, indicating a general expectation that such high activity is unlikely.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of 0.25% for 'YES' suggests minimal expectation for high tweet volume.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk indicate fluctuating activity but rarely reaching extreme levels.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with only 77 hours until the expiry of the market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 21 12:00 PM ET to March 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.